India–Bangladesh Relations at a Crossroads: From Comfort to Contest in Neighbourhood Diplomacy

Post Date: 02 January 2026
Mains Mapping: GS-II (International Relations) | Neighbourhood Policy | Essay
Anchored in: Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs Report + Recent Dhaka Developments

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🌏 Wisdom Essay (≈1200 words)

For nearly a decade, India–Bangladesh relations stood out as one of the rare success stories in India’s neighbourhood diplomacy. Stable political leadership in Dhaka, expanding connectivity, deepening economic ties, and robust security cooperation had transformed a historically sensitive relationship into a largely predictable partnership. Today, that era appears to be ending.

The warning issued by India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs that India faces its “most formidable strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the 1971 Liberation War” marks a moment of reckoning. It signals not a breakdown, but a transition—from comfort-driven diplomacy to contest-driven diplomacy, where alignment can no longer be assumed and strategic space must be actively defended.

Bangladesh’s Centrality in India’s Strategic Architecture

Bangladesh is not merely a neighbour on India’s eastern flank; it is the keystone of India’s eastern strategy. It anchors India’s Act East Policy, underpins the integration of the Northeast with the mainland, shapes Bay of Bengal security, and influences water, energy, and connectivity diplomacy.

A disruption in Dhaka therefore reverberates far beyond bilateral relations. It affects India’s internal cohesion, regional ambitions, and external credibility.

Political Upheaval and the End of Strategic Certainty

The 2024 regime change in Bangladesh fundamentally altered the political landscape. The ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ended a decade-long strategic alignment that had provided India with unprecedented diplomatic comfort. The subsequent death sentence handed to Hasina in November 2025 by interim authorities further polarised Bangladeshi politics and hardened narratives around sovereignty and nationalism.

For India, this meant the erosion of a familiar interlocutor and the collapse of a relationship anchored heavily in leadership-level trust. Diplomacy now operates in a fragmented political environment where institutional continuity cannot be taken for granted.

Emergence of a New Political Order

The banning of the Awami League from political activity and its exclusion from the February 2026 elections marks a structural shift in Bangladesh’s political order. The rise of the National Citizen Party, led by student activists, reflects generational change but also political volatility.

Such transitions often create strategic vacuums. In Bangladesh’s case, this vacuum is being actively contested.

Expanding External Influence and Strategic Anxiety

China and Turkey have moved swiftly to expand their footprints in Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure financing, defence cooperation, and strategic projects. For China, Bangladesh is a critical node in the Bay of Bengal and a potential lever within the broader Indo-Pacific competition. Turkey’s engagement adds a new layer, blending defence exports with ideological outreach.

This expanding external presence does not automatically translate into hostility toward India. However, it dilutes India’s relative influence and challenges its long-held strategic primacy in Dhaka.

Cooling of Bilateral Ties and Narrative Drift

The political transition has been accompanied by a perceptible cooling of bilateral ties. Bangladesh’s interim regime has adopted a more nationalistic and less India-friendly posture. Anti-India sentiments, once marginal, have found greater public expression, including protests targeting Indian diplomatic missions such as the demonstration at the Indian High Commission in Dhaka in December 2025.

In contemporary diplomacy, narratives matter as much as policies. When people-level perceptions sour, even technically sound agreements struggle to sustain legitimacy.

Connectivity: From Strategic Asset to Strategic Risk

India–Bangladesh connectivity projects—rail links, port access, and the India–Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline—were never merely economic initiatives. They symbolised strategic interdependence and mutual trust.

Political uncertainty now places these flagship projects at risk. Delays or reversals would weaken India’s Northeast integration, disrupt supply chains, and signal vulnerability in India’s neighbourhood strategy. Connectivity, once an anchor of cooperation, risks becoming a pressure point.

Security and the Long Border Reality

The two countries share a 4,096 km border—one of the longest and most complex in the world. Cooperation on border management, counterterrorism, migration control, and anti-smuggling operations is not optional; it is existential.

Any breakdown in security cooperation risks spillover effects into Assam, West Bengal, and the broader Northeast. In this context, political distrust translates directly into internal security challenges for India.

The Ganga Water Treaty: A Strategic Clock Ticking

Perhaps the most under-appreciated risk lies in water diplomacy. The Ganga Water Sharing Treaty expires in December 2026. With no formal bilateral negotiations initiated so far, the possibility of a post-2026 vacuum looms large.

Water treaties are not merely technical documents; they are political symbols of trust. A delayed or contentious renewal could harden public opinion in Bangladesh and provide fertile ground for external actors to exploit grievances.

Lessons from History and the Limits of Nostalgia

India and Bangladesh share a deep historical bond forged in 1971 and institutionalised through milestones such as the 1972 Friendship Treaty, the Land Boundary Agreement, and decades of cultural exchange. However, history alone cannot sustain contemporary partnerships.

Bangladesh today is more confident, more connected globally, and more conscious of its strategic autonomy. India’s challenge is to engage this reality without appearing patronising or defensive.

Way Forward: From Assumptions to Strategy

India’s response must rest on five pillars:

First, early and continuous dialogue. Silence creates space for misinterpretation.
Second, people-centric engagement, especially with youth and civil society.
Third, delivery credibility—projects promised must be projects delivered.
Fourth, issue-based diplomacy, particularly on water, trade barriers, and border management.
Fifth, strategic patience, recognising that neighbourhood diplomacy is a marathon, not a sprint.

Conclusion

India–Bangladesh relations are not collapsing; they are being tested. The shift from comfort to contest is not a failure of diplomacy but a reflection of changing political realities. India’s task is to adapt—by listening more, assuming less, and engaging deeper.

As the IAS Monk Whisper reminds us, “In diplomacy, distance grows not when borders harden, but when conversations pause.” The future of India–Bangladesh relations will depend on whether dialogue keeps pace with change.

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🧠 Mains Booster (High-Value Fodder)

• Neighbourhood First vs strategic competition
• Act East and Northeast integration
• Water diplomacy as strategic trust-building
• Connectivity as strategic infrastructure
• Managing China factor in South Asia
• People-centric diplomacy and narrative management
• Parliamentary oversight in foreign policy

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✍️ Answer Writing Support

🔹 10-Mark Questions

Q1. Why is Bangladesh strategically critical to India’s Act East Policy?
Suggested Answer (≈150 words):
Bangladesh is India’s eastern pivot, enabling physical connectivity between mainland India and the Northeast. It provides access to ports in the Bay of Bengal, supports regional trade, and facilitates energy and water diplomacy. Stability in Bangladesh is therefore essential for India’s Act East Policy, internal security, and regional integration.

Q2. Explain the significance of the Ganga Water Treaty in India–Bangladesh relations.
Suggested Answer:
The Ganga Water Treaty symbolises trust in bilateral relations. Its renewal is vital to prevent political hardening, address water security concerns, and maintain cooperative river governance.

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🔹 15-Mark Questions

Q1. Analyse the challenges facing India–Bangladesh relations in the post-2024 political transition in Dhaka.
Suggested Answer (≈250 words):
[Structured analytical answer covering regime change, external influence, connectivity risks, security concerns, and diplomacy recalibration.]

Q2. “India–Bangladesh relations are moving from comfort-driven diplomacy to contest-driven diplomacy.” Discuss.
Suggested Answer:
[Analytical answer highlighting strategic competition, narrative shifts, and adaptive diplomacy.]

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